It was practically a party-line vote Friday afternoon when the Democratic-controlled House passed a non-binding resolution disapproving President Bush’s decision to increase U.S. troop strength in Iraq.
But it was not a perfect party-line vote. Among the 246 members voting for the resolution were 229 Democrats — and 17 Republicans. And while 180 Republicans provided the bulk of the votes against the measure, they were joined by two Democrats. (Six members did not vote and there is a vacancy in Georgia’s 10th District caused by the death on Tuesday of Republican Rep. Charlie Norwood.)
Assuming, probably safely, that the controversial war in Iraq will remain a central issue through the 2008 campaign season, members’ votes on this resolution will be talking points in many campaigns.
But only a handful of the 19 members who crossed party lines appear — at least at this very early phase of the 2008 campaign cycle — to face even the prospect of serious electoral challenges next year.
The two Democrats who voted no are both Southerners who projected conservative images and represent mostly conservative constituencies: Jim Marshall, a Vietnam War veteran from Georgia’s 8th District, and Gene Taylor, who represents southern Mississippi’s 4th District that gave more than two-thirds of its votes to Bush in the 2004 presidential elections.
Of these two, only Marshall is considered at this point as potentially vulnerable. Running in a district redrawn by Republican state lawmakers in a mid-decade redistricting, Marshall narrowly outlasted his Republican challenger, former Rep. Mac Collins, in 2006.
The 17 Republicans who backed the resolution come from a somewhat diverse range of political ideologies. The list includes some prominent GOP centrists, such as Michael N. Castle of Delaware’s at-large district and Mark Steven Kirk of Illinois’ 10th District. But it also contains Republicans with conservative voting records, such as Howard Coble of North Carolina’s 6th District and Ric Keller of Florida’s 8th.
This group also includes Rep. John J. “Jimmy” Duncan Jr. of Tennessee’s 2nd District and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas’ 14th, who is exploring a bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. Though both overall have strongly conservative records, they are the only two Republicans in Congress today who voted against the 2002 resolution that authorized Bush to wage military operations in Iraq.
What connects most of these GOP members, regardless of their ideological orientation, is that most come from relatively “safe” Republican districts. Of the 17, 13 exceeded 55 percent of the vote in 2006, most by a wide margin. Bush ran ahead of the Democratic nominee, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, in 14 of the 17 districts in the 2004 presidential election.
But there are a few pro-resolution Republicans whose districts produce some measure of sentiment against the Iraq war.
The three members in this crossover group who represent “Kerry-Republican” House districts — Delaware’s Castle, Illinois’ Kirk and James T. Walsh of New York’s 25th District — all had vote percentages in 2006 that were their lowest in any of their House re-election campaigns, as did Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia’s 11th District, which went just narrowly for Bush in 2004.
Also enduring closer than usual races in 2006 in districts that favored Bush by modest margins two years earlier were Phil English of Pennsylvania’s 3rd District and Keller, who represents Florida’s 8th District
CQPolitics.com senior reporter Greg Giroux has compiled the following information about the 19 House members who voted against most members of their own party on the resolution opposing the troop increase in Iraq. Each member of Congress is identified by his state and district; the vote percentage they received in their 2006 re-elections; and the result of the 2004 presidential election in the district.
House Republicans voting for the resolution of disapproval (17)
• Michael N. Castle, Delaware’s At-Large
2006 Vote: 57 percent
2004 President: Kerry 53 percent
Long a partisan swing state, Delaware recently has leaned increasingly Democratic. But eight-term Rep. Castle is a long-popular moderate who previously served eight years as governor.
• Howard Coble, North Carolina’s 6th
2006 Vote: 71 percent
2004 President: Bush 69 percent
After a pair of close races at the start of his 12-term career, Coble has cruised to easy wins in this central North Carolina GOP stronghold.
• Thomas M. Davis III, Virginia’s 11th
2006 Vote: 55 percent
2004 President: Bush 50 percent
His visible engagement on local issues and relatively moderate profile benefits seven-term incumbent Davis, who has long had ambitions to serve in the Senate. But a Democratic trend in the Northern Virginia suburbs he represents is making him less safe.
• John J. “Jimmy” Duncan Jr., Tennessee’s 2nd
2006 Vote: 78 percent
2004 President: Bush 65 percent
A member of a local political dynasty in east Tennessee, 10-term Rep. Duncan has name ID and a partisan cushion in this Republican stronghold.
• Phil English, Pennsylvania’s 3rd
2006 Vote: 54 percent
2004 President: Bush 53 percent
English, in his seventh term, combines GOP loyalties with some moderate overtones, including an outreach to organized labor. But in the anti-Republican mood of 2006, his vote share in his Erie-centered district dropped 6 points from two years earlier.
• Wayne T. Gilchrest, Maryland’s 1st
2006 Vote: 69 percent
2004 President: Bush 62 percent
Though not exactly a maverick, this mild-mannered former teacher, now in his ninth House term, has distanced himself from party leaders before, especially on environmental issues.
• Bob Inglis, South Carolina’s 4th
2006 Vote: 64 percent
2004 President: Bush 65 percent
Straying from the party line is a relatively rare thing for the conservative Inglis. One of the few House members to stick to a term-limit pledge in the 1990s, he lost a Senate race in 1998 but returned to win an open House seat in 2004 and now is in his fifth term overall.
• Timothy V. Johnson, Illinois’ 15th
2006 Vote: 58 percent
2004 President: Bush 58 percent
Johnson, a moderate Republican in his fourth term, has a largely rural eastern Illinois district that is Republican enough to consistently provide him with comfortable margins.
• Walter B. Jones, North Carolina’s 3rd
2006 Vote: 69 percent
2004 President: Bush 68 percent
The namesake son of a late conservative Democratic House veteran, Jones had to explain his early and vocal criticism of Bush’s handling of the war to his strongly conservative constituency in 2006, but won a seventh term with ease. The district contains the Marine Corps’ massive Camp Lejeune installation.
• Ric Keller, Florida’s 8th
2006 Vote: 53 percent
2004 President: Bush 55 percent
After having to battle for a fourth term in 2006 in an Orlando-area district, Keller is likely to face another Democratic initiative to oust him next year.
• Mark Steven Kirk, Illinois’ 10th
2006 Vote: 53 percent
2004 President: Kerry 52 percent
An image as a leading House GOP moderate, combined with strong intellectual skills and a background in foreign policy, appeared to give Kirk political security in Chicago’s northern suburbs. But his percentage dropped sharply as he bid for a fourth term in last year’s tough political atmosphere, and Democrats may try to probe his vulnerability.
• Steven C. LaTourette, Ohio’s 14th
2006 Vote: 58 percent
2004 President: Bush 52 percent
Bush’s 2004 showing among LaTourette’s northeast Ohio voters suggests this is close to a swing district. But a weak Democratic recruiting effort in 2006 gave the party little chance of seriously testing the incumbent as he won a seventh term with ease.
• Ron Paul, Texas’ 14th
2006 Vote: 60 percent
2004 President: Bush 67 percent
A physician and former Libertarian Party presidential nominee, Paul has the nickname of “Dr. No” — earned mainly from his contrarian opposition to nearly all spending bills — that extends to some military issues he views as foreign entanglements. In his ninth full term over three separate tenures, Paul has taken a tentative step toward entering the 2008 GOP presidential race.
• Tom Petri, Wisconsin’s 6th
2006 Vote: 99 percent (no Democrat ran)
2004 President: Bush 56 percent
Now in his 14th full term, Petri has had only one relatively close re-election contest and has run several times without Democratic opposition. So he has the latitude now and then to differ with his party.
• Jim Ramstad, Minnesota’s 3rd
2006 Vote: 65 percent
2004 President: Bush 51 percent
Ramstad’s relatively moderate views and strong personal popularity have made Democrats view him as virtually untouchable after nine election victories. But Bush’s narrow lead here in 2004 suggests Democrats would have a shot in this suburban Twin Cities district should Ramstad ever retire.
• Fred Upton, Michigan’s 6th
2006 Vote: 61 percent
2004 President: Bush 53 percent
In his 11th term, Upton has a generally conservative record, but has stood apart on some issues ranging from the environment to gun control to fiscal issues — and now the Iraq War.
• James T. Walsh, New York’s 25th
2006 Vote: 51 percent
2004 President: Kerry 50 percent
Based on the 2006 results, Walsh may be highest on the Democrats’ 2008 target list among Republicans who broke with their party on the Iraq resolution. After being bolstered for years by his seat on the Appropriations Committee, Walsh faced the political fight of his career in 2006 before narrowly prevailing to win a 10th term.
House Democrats voting against the resolution of disapproval (2)
• Jim Marshall, Georgia’s 8th
2006 Vote: 50.5 percent
2004 President: Bush 61 percent
Marshall’s break with the Democratic line on the Iraq resolution wasn’t a new thing: He has been more supportive of Bush’s Iraq policy than most Democrats throughout the conflict. His success at projecting an image as a conservative Democrat was vital to his win for a third term in 2006, when he had to overcome former GOP Rep. Mac Collins and an unfavorable redistricting map.
• Gene Taylor, Mississippi’s 4th
2006 Vote: 80 percent
2004 President: Bush 68 percent
His consistent record as one of the most conservative House Democrats has enabled Taylor to grow deep roots in this southern Mississippi district since winning a 1989 special election, even though the 4th otherwise has a strong Republican edge.
© 2006 Congressional Quarterly
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